election results
binomial probability equation = (n!/(k!(n-k)!))(t^k) ((1-t)^(n-k))
Trump
Biden
rejected
n
  mail in ballots (half of total)
k
  actual rejected plus twice (1.) difference in vote
t
  % expected rejection rate with inexperienced voters
   
   
   
   
NA
NA
The smallest number is the below table is 16.
That is 1 in 10^16.
1 in 10,000,000,000,000,000
that it was a free and fair election.
This
is using the absolutely lowest, most conservative
rejection rate of 3%. It should have been closer to 30%.
1 in 10^n probability that Biden actually won
percent
Georgia
Arizona
Wisconsin
All 3
3.0
8260
16
44
8916
4.0
15712
1274
1430
22326
5.0
24070
3960
4170
38707
6.0
33047
7579
7794
57072
7.0
42490
11868
12055
76896
8.0
52308
16671
16802
97869
9.0
62444
21886
21943
119793
10.0
72861
27446
27413
142533
11.0
83532
33304
33166
165999
12.0
94438
39425
39170
190123
13.0
105567
45782
45401
214856
14.0
116909
52356
51839
240163
15.0
128456
59133
58472
266017
16.0
140205
66100
65287
292397
17.0
152153
73249
72277
319290
18.0
164296
80573
79435
346685
19.0
176635
88065
86755
374576
20.0
189170
95724
94235
402957
21.0
201901
103544
101872
431827
22.0
214829
111525
109663
461186
23.0
227957
119664
117608
491036
24.0
241287
127962
125705
521379
25.0
254822
136418
133955
552222
26.0
268565
145032
142359
583568
27.0
282520
153806
150917
615425
28.0
296690
162741
159630
647801
29.0
311081
171837
168501
680704
30.0
325696
181099
177531
714145
(1.) Since Biden got 75% of the mail in vote, the 25% for Trump
cancels out 25% for Biden leaving 50%, thus double the difference in vote to cancel
that many votes.
Java and C++ versions available here:  
binomial.zip
or to see calculations in javascript.